El Nino likely to bring warmer, drier weather to Singapore in second half of year, raising risk of haze
The dry season this year could be more intense and prolonged compared with recent years, says the Meteorological Service Singapore.
Two people shield themselves from the sun under an umbrella in Clementi. (File photo: CNA/Gaya Chandramohan)
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SINGAPORE: El Nino conditions are expected to develop between June and July, bringing warmer and drier weather to Singapore and the surrounding region in the second half of the year, with a higher risk of transboundary haze, the Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said on Friday (May 29).
There is a more than 80 per cent chance of an El Nino event occurring in 2026, supported by key indicators such as warmer sub-surface ocean temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific, MSS said in a media advisory.
"El Nino events tend to have the greatest influence on Singapore’s rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season from June to September, increasing the chance of dry conditions," it added.
El Nino is a naturally occurring climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It typically occurs every three to five years and can last up to a year, disrupting global weather patterns, often bringing hotter and drier conditions to Southeast Asia.
The most recent El Nino event occurred between 2023 and early 2024, before conditions shifted to La Nina, which contributed to wetter weather in the region through much of 2024 and into early 2026.
DRIER, WARMER MONTHS AHEAD
El Nino is expected to influence Singapore’s weather from June to October, particularly during the southwest monsoon season from June to September, when dry conditions are more likely.
During the last strong El Nino in 2015, Singapore's total rainfall between June and September was about 35 per cent below the long-term average.
El Nino events are also associated with higher temperatures. In 2016, when the previous event weakened, average temperatures from March to May reached 29.2°C - 1°C above the long-term average for that period - making it Singapore’s second warmest period for those months on record.
While the upcoming El Nino is expected to start at a moderate strength, it could intensify towards the later part of the southwest monsoon season, around August to September, MSS said.
In addition to El Nino, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is also predicted to develop between July and August. The phenomenon is similar to El Nino but occurs in the equatorial Indian Ocean.
"Singapore and our surrounding regions tend to experience drier conditions as sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean are cooler, resulting in less cloud formation," said MSS, noting that Singapore’s driest year on record occurred in 1997 when both El Nino and positive IOD events occurred.
HIGHER RISK OF HAZE
The combination of El Nino and a possible positive IOD is expected to intensify and prolong the dry season, potentially extending it into October.
Drier and warmer conditions increase the likelihood of peatland and vegetation fires in the region. If these fires occur near Singapore and prevailing winds blow smoke towards the island, transboundary haze could affect air quality, said MSS.
"The hotspot and smoke haze situation in the surrounding region could escalate from June," it added.
Authorities also said that the 28 government agencies under the Haze Task Force, chaired by the National Environment Agency (NEA), are prepared to activate response plans if air quality deteriorates.
Members of the public are advised to monitor the 1-hour PM2.5 readings for real-time air quality for planning immediate outdoor activities, and refer to the 24-hour Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) and accompanying health advisories for planning next day activities.
They are also encouraged to check that air purifiers are in working condition and to follow official advisories via NEA’s website, the myENV app and social media channels.
