Why Barisan Nasional may call early Johor, Melaka state polls in second half of 2026

JOHOR BAHRU: The United Malays National Organisation’s (UMNO) 80th anniversary celebration at Johor’s Istana Besar on Monday (May 11) was as much a show of political strength as it was a commemoration of history, reinforcing the southern state’s status as the party’s symbolic heartland.

Held at the palace where the erstwhile ruling party was founded, and attended by Malaysia’s King Sultan Ibrahim Iskandar and Johor Regent Tunku Ismail Ibrahim, the celebration took place against a backdrop of intensifying speculation that the party - a lynchpin of the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition - is preparing for early state elections in Johor and Melaka.

If victorious in early state polls, it would allow UMNO-led BN to rebuild momentum independently of the federal unity government, positioning itself more strongly ahead of a general election due by early 2028, political analysts say.

The speculation gained traction after local reports suggested Johor UMNO leaders are pushing for polls as early as August or September, with party insiders indicating that the party’s recent supreme council meetings have increasingly centred on election readiness. 

Johor’s state election is only due by mid-2027 while Melaka’s is due by early 2027.

Yet, on Monday, UMNO president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi was coy when reporters asked if state polls for Johor and Melaka were imminent. 

“I hereby announce that the Johor state election will not be held tomorrow,” he joked.

“We met the king, but we did not speak about (state elections). There were many major national issues being discussed (during the supreme council meeting) but, in all seriousness, I would like to point out that this was just a normal meeting,” he said.

When pressed if Johor polls might be called together with Melaka’s, or before it, he said: “I will speak with the YAB chief minister (Johor Chief Minister Onn Hafiz Ghazi), after receiving blessing from the King (Johor ruler).” 

It is the prerogative of the state’s ruler or governor to dissolve the state assemblies on the advice of the chief minister, who is typically from the state’s ruling party or coalition.

Despite Zahid’s comments, the sequencing of a supreme council meeting held in Melaka in mid-April, and subsequently in Johor, alongside mobilisation on the ground, has reinforced perceptions that preparations are underway.

An UMNO Johor state assemblyman, speaking on condition of anonymity, told CNA that party machinery has been quietly activated for a potential vote in the latter half of the year.

“We are not certain of the exact date, but preparations have started," the assemblyman said. 

“We’ve been told it is likely to be held some time after Hari Raya (Haji, in late May) - in the latter half of the year - but one way or the other, we are ready to reclaim Johor for UMNO," the assemblyman added. 

Political analysts said BN has a strong incentive to call early state polls rather than align them with the next general election, as lower turnout in standalone contests tend to favour the incumbent while putting its main rival, Pakatan Harapan (PH), at a disadvantage. 

Although BN is aligned with PH at the federal level, they are rivals at the state level in Johor and Melaka.

Holding the elections sooner would also allow UMNO to exploit what observers describe as a period of softer support for PH, denying Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s coalition a chance to regroup ahead of national polls due by February 2028.

However, opposition leaders and some analysts argue that decoupling state and federal elections would lead to unnecessary costs at a time when the country is under greater fiscal pressure due to the Middle East crisis.

BN EYES JOHOR, MELAKA AS SPRINGBOARD FOR GE 

Former Democratic Action Party (DAP) lawmaker Ong Kian Ming, who is adjunct professor at Taylor’s University in Selangor, said early elections in Johor and Melaka would allow BN to translate state-level dominance into national momentum, particularly if it secures the two-thirds majorities widely expected by observers. 

“BN wants to call a state election in Johor before the UMNO General Assembly in August 2026 because it knows that BN is strong in Johor, led by a popular chief minister,” said Ong, a former deputy minister of trade and industry. 

“It wants to have the momentum of a strong showing in Johor to take into the UMNO General Assembly, where it will likely confirm that BN wants to go solo for GE16,” he added, referring to the next general election, Malaysia's 16th. 

Melaka could follow suit, said Ong. 

DAP is a major component of PH, together with Anwar’s Parti Keadilan Rakyat and Parti Amanah Negara (Amanah). As for BN, besides UMNO, it is made up of smaller parties such as the Malaysian Chinese Association and the Malaysian Indian Congress.

BN’s confidence is underpinned by its commanding performances in the last state polls in Melaka and Johor, which were standalone ones held separately from the general elections. 

It won 21 of 28 seats in Melaka in 2021 and 40 of 56 seats in Johor in 2022. In contrast, PH secured just five and 12 seats respectively, noted Francis Hutchinson of Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute. 

“BN did very well when these elections were held on their own, but PH has historically performed better when state and federal polls are held concurrently,” he said, pointing to PH’s breakthrough victories in the 2018 Johor and Melaka state polls, which were held concurrently with the general elections. 

Lower turnout in standalone state elections is a key factor, he said. 

Johor, in particular, has a sizeable number of voters based in Singapore who are less likely to return home solely for state polls. This dynamic tends to hurt PH more than BN. 

“PH needs higher turnout to perform well, whereas BN’s more disciplined machinery can reliably mobilise its base regardless of the electoral context,” said Hutchinson, who is director of the institute’s Malaysia programme. 

Early state elections would thus allow BN to “drum up momentum and signal that the party has regained strength” ahead of GE16, he said.

Opposition figures argue that such a strategy comes at a cost. 

Holding separate state elections could cost the government an estimated RM150 million (US$38.2 million) more as opposed to holding the polls concurrently with GE16, according to local media reports. 

Critics say this is hard to justify amid ongoing cost-of-living pressures and fuel price volatility linked to global supply disruptions. 

President of Malaysian United Democratic Alliance (MUDA) Amira Aisya Abdul Aziz, who is on the opposition bench in the Johor state assembly, told CNA that the youth-centric party is “ramping up preparation” for its state campaign but maintained this is not the right time to be focused on politics. 

“Realistically, the (state governments) shouldn't call for elections especially when the cost of living is increasing. Oil supply and prices are also being disrupted and this has affected all Malaysians,” said Amira. 

“A responsible government would wait to solve the issue first, rather than focusing on politics and campaigns that will cost the (taxpayers) a lot of money,” added Amira, Puteri Wangsa’s state assemblyman, urging both the Johor and Melaka governments to see out their full terms. 

DAP Johor chairman Teo Nie Ching echoed similar sentiments, accusing the BN-led Johor state government of being focused on politicking instead of addressing issues faced by the masses. 

“At a time when people are facing real issues, from water supply disruptions to inconsistent local governance decisions, the priority should be accountability and service delivery. However, the government is choosing to prioritise political survival over democratic integrity,” added Teo, who is also Deputy Minister of Communications. 

TEST FOR BN-PN TIES

The Johor and Melaka state elections are likely to see BN and PH go head-to-head in tightly fought contests. 

Perikatan Nasional (PN), the main opposition bloc nationally, is seen as a secondary political player in the two states, holding just three seats in Johor and two seats in Melaka. 

DAP’s Teo told CNA that the party grassroots in Johor are bracing for an imminent contest, with machinery already activated. 

“While PH and BN cooperate at the federal level, the political reality in Johor is different. There is no discussion between PH and BN to avoid contesting in the same seats,” said Teo. 

Hutchinson told CNA it is “almost a certainty” that BN and PH will contest “very hard” for control of Melaka and Johor. 

“Indeed, it is the control of these two states that is a key source of competition and tension between them,” he said. 

Political analyst Syaza Shukri of the International Islamic University Malaysia similarly described BN-PH ties as inherently tenuous, predicting an “all-out battle” as both sides sharpen their attacks ahead of the polls. 

In Johor last week, the BN-led state assembly passed a Bill allowing the appointment of five non-elected assemblymen. 

Chief Minister Onn Hafiz said it would enhance the assembly’s capacity to assess and make effective decisions as the state receives more investment opportunities. 

“This approach has also been adopted and practised in several other states, such as Pahang, Terengganu and Sabah,” said the Machap assemblyman. 

But this has drawn criticism from the opposition because these appointees would be able to vote on legislation despite not being elected.

DAP’s Teo said it “exposes BN’s true intention of attempting to consolidate power by bypassing” the people’s mandate. 

“If BN believes in democracy, they should face the voters, not invent new ways to avoid them,” she said. 

MUDA’s Amira also questioned the accountability of such appointees, noting that public funds would be used to pay their salaries. 

“This Bill … gives blanket power to future governments to do whatever they want by appointing five (people to shore up support for them),” she told CNA.  

Teo further said the state should prioritise long-delayed electoral boundary redelineation, pointing to disparities where some urban constituencies exceed 100,000 voters while certain rural seats have around 20,000. 

“Instead of correcting this through long-overdue redelineation, the state government is choosing to sidestep the problem by creating unelected positions,” she said.  

Despite the intensifying contest at the state level, analysts say the rivalry may not preclude cooperation further down the line. Once the state elections conclude, both BN and PH could recalibrate their strategies ahead of GE16.  

“Much easier for the two coalitions to contest against each other in these two states and then keep options open for collaboration or some sort of agreement to avoid competing in key seats in the next GE,” Hutchinson told CNA. 

Taylor’s University’s Ong suggested the state polls could also serve as a test for BN’s ties with PN, particularly in exploring a broader alignment of Malay-Muslim parties, as part of the grand collaboration of Malay-Islamic parties as proposed by Zahid earlier this year. 

“BN will take advantage of its strong showing in the (two) southern states to see if PN, particularly Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS), wants to have some sort of electoral ‘understanding’ with BN where they will still compete against one another, but the narrative they will take is one of ‘friendly competition’ with room to cooperate after GE16 to form the federal government,” Ong said.

For PH, the timing of national polls remains the more delicate calculation. 

Hutchinson said PM Anwar is likely to hold off, given signs of softening support. 

Recent media reports cite an internal PKR analysis indicating vulnerabilities across many of the party’s seats, including Anwar’s own constituency of Tambun. A significant number of seats the party hopes to contest are also reportedly classified as difficult or competitive. 

“The current signs are that PH and PKR, in particular, are very vulnerable, with considerable voter dissatisfaction even in bastion seats. Thus, they could conceivably be swept from power at the national level if polls were held now,” Hutchinson said. 

“Given this, it is likely that they will seek to regain momentum in the months ahead,” he added.