India's state elections test Modi alliance as Tamil Nadu, West Bengal voting begins
The contests are closely watched as a gauge of public sentiment towards the ruling coalition led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Actor-turned-politician Vijay, president of Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), greets his supporters after filing his nomination papers for the Tamil Nadu state assembly election, in Chennai, India, March 30, 2026. (Photo: Reuters/Riya Mariyam R)
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NEW DELHI: Voting is under way in Tamil Nadu and West Bengal on Thursday (Apr 23) in staggered regional elections that could test Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling alliance as well as a resurgent opposition.
Polling has already been completed in Assam and Kerala, as well as the federally administered territory of Puducherry, earlier this month. Results from all the elections are due on May 4.
The contests are widely seen as a key barometer of national momentum – and the first major electoral test for both the federal government and the opposition amid economic uncertainty linked to the Middle East conflict.
For the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the stakes are significant.
The coalition, led by Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), currently controls only one of the four major states voting – Assam – and is looking to expand its footprint and reinforce its claim as a truly pan-India political force.
BJP STRUGGLES IN SOUTHERN STRONGHOLD
In Tamil Nadu, that remains a challenge.
The southern state has long been an unbreachable fortress for Modi’s alliance, dominated instead by regional heavyweights – the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK).
But this election has been shaken up by the political debut of Tamil film star Vijay.
His party, Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam, is contesting all 234 seats independently, injecting fresh uncertainty into the race.
“We are staring at all kinds of probabilities from a DMK sweep to an AIADMK victory purely because of an entry which is undefined and untested,” said Yashwant Deshmukh, founder of polling agency C-Voter.
Analysts say voter sentiment is also being shaped by bread-and-butter issues such as inflation and recent cooking gas shortages, which could fuel anti-incumbency trends.
FIERCE CONTEST GRIPS WEST BENGAL
In West Bengal, the stakes may be even higher.
The ruling regional party, the All India Trinamool Congress, has accused the federal government of removing millions of voters from electoral rolls during a contentious revision exercise and of suppressing political dissent – allegations that election officials deny.
The dispute has intensified what is already one of the fiercest political contests in the state’s recent history.
For the NDA, making gains in West Bengal would carry symbolic weight as it seeks to break into regions traditionally resistant to its influence.
Any inroads in opposition-held states could be framed as evidence of growing national appeal, said observers.
For opposition parties, the challenge is to convince voters they can mount a serious challenge to Modi – and to convert voter sentiment into tangible gains following a stronger-than-expected performance in the 2024 general elections.
“They are unable to convert that emotion of voters' favourability into tangible election victories,” said Deshmukh.
“BJP has nothing to lose here,” he added, noting that even retaining Assam would allow it to argue that the party is expanding its footprint.
When results are declared next month, they could reveal whether the opposition can hold its ground and whether the BJP is extending its reach beyond its traditional base.
